Pancreatitis Outcome Prediction Score Medical Algorithm

Description

Harrison et al developed the Pancreatitis Outcome Prediction (POP) score for evaluating patients with severe acute pancreatitis. This can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the Intensive Care Audit & Research Centre and University College in London.

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) mean arterial blood pressure in mm Hg

(3) PaO2 to FIO2 ratio in mm Hg

(4) arterial pH

(5) serum urea in mmol/L

(6) total serum calcium in mmol/L

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	16 - 29 years	0
	30 - 39 years	1
	40 - 49 years	3
	50 - 59 years	5
	60 - 69 years	7
	>= 70 years	8
mean arterial blood pressure	>= 90 mm Hg	0
	80 - 89 mm Hg	1
	60 - 79 mm Hg	3
	50 - 59 mm Hg	4
	40 - 49 mm Hg	6
	< 40 mm Hg	8
PaO2 to FIO2 ratio	>= 225 mm Hg	0
	75 - 224 mm Hg	3
	< 75 mm Hg	4
arterial pH	>= 7.35	0
	7.30 - 7.35	1
	7.25 - 7.29	2
	7.20 - 7.24	4
	7.10 - 7.19	5
	7.00 - 7.09	6
	< 7.00	10
serum urea	< 5 mmol/L	0
	5 - 7.9 mmol/L	1
	8.0 - 10.9 mmol/L	3
	11 - 16.9 mmol/L	4
	>= 17 mmol/L	6
total calcium	< 1.6	4
	1.6 - 1.79	2
	1.8 - 1.99	1
	2.0 - 2.29 mmol/L	0
	2.3 - 2.49	2
	>= 2.5	4

where:

• The mean arterial pressure = ((systolic) + (2 * (diastolic))) / 3

total score =

= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 40

• The higher the score the greater the mortality rate.

X =

= (0.248 * (total score)) - 4.908

probability of mortality =

= 1/ (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

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Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10

Pancreatitis Outcome Prediction (POP) Score of Harrison et al

Purpose: To predict mortality for a patient with severe acute pancreatitis using the Pancreatitis Outcome Prediction (POP) score of Harrison et al.

Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10