Predicting Mortality in Stage I Malignant Melanoma Using the Equations of Helfenstein et al

Description

The mortality rate for patients with Stage I malignant melanoma can be estimated using the equations developed by Helfenstein et al from Zurich. Data was plotted in action profiles which demonstrated the effect of a particular variable over its allowable range.

NOTE: The paper states that the patients were all Stage I melanomas. From text and figures it would appear that patients with tumors up to 8 mm were included. For the AJCC staging system a Stage I tumor should not exceed 1.5 mm.

Parameter	Finding	Points
sex	female	1
	male	0
site	trunk	1
	non-trunk	0
truncated thickness	< 2 mm	(thickness)
	>= 2 mm	2

equation 1 for X =

= (0.576 * (points for site)) - (0.668 * (points for sex)) + (0.038 * (age in years)) + (0.507 * (points for thickness)) - 4.62

equation 2 for X =

= (0.744 * (points for site)) - (0.796 * (points for sex)) + (0.00167 * ((age in years)^2)) - (0.150 * (age in years)) + (1.79 * (points for truncated thickness)) - 1.29

probability of death within 5 years of diagnosis =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (X)))

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Predicting Mortality in Stage I Malignant Melanoma Using the Equations of Helfenstein et al

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