Tellez et al reported models for predicting survival for a patient with autoimmune hepatitis who is being treated with corticosteroids. One model is calculated at baseline while a second after 1 week of therapy. The authors are from multiple institutions in Spain.
Patient selection: adults with autoimmune hepatitis, from 20 to 90 years, with MELD >= 12
Outcome: 90-day transplant-free survival
Parameters:
(1) hepatic encephalopathy
(2) ascites of any amount
(3) MELD score, from 12 to 40
(4) age in years, from 20 to 90
points for MELD score =
= 0.25 * (MELD)
points for age =
= (0.027 * (age)) - 0.004
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
hepatic encephalopathy
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1.36
|
|
ascites
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1.24
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 15.13
• The higher the score the worse the 90-day transplant free survival.
|
Total Score
|
Value of X
|
|
0 to 9.6
|
6.269 - (0.6793 * (score))
|
|
9.6 to 15.13
|
(-0.3385 * ((score)^2)) + (5.793 * (score)) - 24.85
|
probability of survival =
= 1 / ( 1 + EXP((-1) * X))
