Tellez et al reported models for predicting survival for a patient with autoimmune hepatitis who is being treated with corticosteroids. One model is calculated at baseline while a second after 1 week of therapy. The authors are from multiple institutions in Spain.
Patient selection: adults with autoimmune hepatitis, from 20 to 90 years, with MELD >= 12
Outcome: 90-day transplant-free survival
Parameters:
(1) hepatic encephalopathy
(2) ascites of any amount
(3) MELD score, from 12 to 40
points for MELD score =
= (0.252 * (MELD)) + (0.0125
Parameter
Finding
Points
hepatic encephalopathy
no
0
yes
2.23
ascites
no
0
yes
2.03
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 14.35
• The higher the score the worse the 90-day transplant free survival.
Total Score
Value of X
0 to 7.5
5.211 - (0.6267 * (score))
7.5 to 14.35
(-0.2302 * ((score)^2)) + (3 * (score)) - 9.185
probability of survival =
= 1 / ( 1 + EXP((-1) * X))
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
