Cohen et al reported a model for predicting choledocholithiasis in pediatric patient. The authors are from Emory University, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, and Georgia Institute of Technology.
Patient selection: age 2 to 18 years admitted for suspected choledocholithiasis
Parameters:
(1) serum ALT in IU/L
(2) serum total bilirubin in mg/dL
(3) serum alkaline phosphatase in IU/L
(4) common bile duct diameter in mm on ultrasonography
Parameter
Points
serum ALT
0.0034 * (ALT)
serum total bilirubin
0.0603 * (bilirubin)
serum alkaline phosphatase
0.0014 * (alk phos)
common bile duct diameter
0.1413 * (diameter)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 2.5847
probability of choledocholithiasis =
= 1 / ( 1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The sore had a sensitivity of 0.41 and specificity of 0.90. The overall accuracy was 0.71.
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.74.
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