Feng et al reported a prediction rule for identifying a patient at increased risk for new-onset atrial fibrillation. The authors are from Capital Medical University in Beijing.
Patient selection: status post coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) left atrial diameter in mm
(3) right atrial diameter in mm
(4) number of grafts
(5) serum uric acid in µmol/L collected 12 hours after surgery
(6) interleukin-6 (IL-6) in pericardial fluid in ng/mL collected 12 hours after surgery
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 61 years
0
>= 61 years
2
left atrial diameter
< 49 mm
0
>= 49 mm
1
right atrial diameter
< 45 mm
0
>= 45 mm
1
number of grafts
1 or 2
0
>= 3
1
serum uric acid
< 226 µmol/L
0
>= 226 µmol/L
1
IL-6 in pericardial fluid
< 166 ng/mL
0
>= 166 ng/mL
2
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 8
Total Score
Risk Group
Incidence of Post-Operative Atrial Fibrillation
0 to 3
low
3-10%
4 to 6
moderate
27%
7 or 8
high
59%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.78.
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
