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Predictive Model of Likosky et al for Perioperative Stroke in a Patient Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) Surgery

Purpose: To estimate the risk of perioperative stroke for a patient undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery using the model of Likosky et al.

Description

Likosky et al developed a model for predicting the probability of stroke associated with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The authors are from Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Fletcher Allen Health Care, Beth Israel Deaconness Medical Center, Catholic Medical Center (Manchester), Maine Medical Center, and Eastern Maine Medical Center.


Parameters:

(1) preoperative estimate for stroke risk

(2) duration of the cardiopulmonary bypass

(3) atrial fibrillation

(4) inotrope use

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

preoperative estimate of stroke risk

low

0

 

medium

0.9386

 

high

1.5762

duration of cardiopulmonary bypass

< 90 minutes

0

 

90 to 113 minutes

0.4633

 

>= 114 minutes

0.8578

atrial fibrillation

absent

0

 

present

0.5976

inotrope use

none or not prolonged

0

 

prolonged

0.9527

 

X =

= SUM(points for the 4 parameters) - 5.548

 

probability of perioperative stroke =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10