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Predictors of Musskopf et al for In-Hospital Mortality in a Patient with Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis (SBP)

Description

Musskopf et al predicted in-hospital mortality for a patient with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Universidade Federal de Ciencias da Saude de Porto Alegre (UFCSPA) in Porto Alegre, Brazil.


Patient selection: spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

 

Outcome: in-hospital mortality

 

Predictors of mortality:

(1) elevated serum total bilirubin

(2) elevated serum creatinine

(3) MELD score (based on serum total bilirubin, serum creatinine and INR)

(4) iMELD score (Integrated MELD score, based on MELD score, age and serum sodium concentration)

 

Probability of mortality is shown in Figure 2.

 

X =

= (0.2366 * (iMELD score)) - 10.70

 

probability of mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Alternatively

 

iMELD Score

Probability of Mortality

< 25

< 1%

25 to 40

(0.114 * ((iMELD)^2)) - (6.07 * (iMELD)) + 80.95

40 to 50

(4.729 * (iMELD)) - 166

50 to 65

(-0.126 * ((iMELD)^2)) + (15.74 * (iMELD)) - 392.3

> 65

> 99%

 


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