Panopoulos et al identified factors at disease onset that are associated with mortality. These can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from National and Kapodistrian University in Athens, Greece.
Patient selection: onset of systemic sclerosis
Predictors of mortality identified at disease onset:
(1) age (45-59 years with HR 3.0; >= 60 years with HR 4.3)
(2) male sex (HR 3.6)
(3) diffuse subtype (HR 2.8)
(4) pulmonary fibrosis (HR 3.7)
(5) pulmonary hypertension by echocardiography (HR 7.5)
(6) DLco < 60% (HR 3.2)
total number of predictors =
= SUM(predictors present)
Interpretation:
• minimum number of predictors: 0
• maximum number of predictors: 6
Total Score
Risk Group
9-Year Mortality
0 to 2
low
3%
3
intermediate
30%
4 to 6
high
66%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.88.
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