Kong et al reported a simple model for predicting 90-day mortality for a patient prior to liver transplant surgery. This can help to identify a high-risk patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from West China Hospital of Sichuan University.
Patient selection: liver transplant
Parameters prior to transplant surgery:
(1) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(2) serum albumin in g/L
(3) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L
(4) age in years
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
serum creatinine |
<= 38 µmol/L |
0 |
|
38.01 to 102 µmol/L |
1 |
|
102.01 to 282 µmol/L |
2 |
|
> 282 µmol/L |
4 |
serum albumin |
<= 24 g/L |
3 |
|
24.01 to 39.99 g/L |
1 |
|
>= 40 g/L |
0 |
serum total bilirubin |
<= 100 µmol/L |
0 |
|
100.1 to 575 µmol/L |
1 |
|
> 575 µmol/L |
3 |
age of the patient |
0 to 65 years |
0 |
|
> 65 years |
3 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 13
Score |
Risk Group |
90-Day Mortality |
0 to 2 |
A |
6.2% |
3 or 4 |
B |
11.8% |
5 or 6 |
C |
24% |
>= 7 |
D |
35% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.65.
Specialty: Gastroenterology