Description

Kong et al reported a simple model for predicting 90-day mortality for a patient prior to liver transplant surgery. This can help to identify a high-risk patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from West China Hospital of Sichuan University.


Patient selection: liver transplant

 

Parameters prior to transplant surgery:

(1) serum creatinine in µmol/L

(2) serum albumin in g/L

(3) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L

(4) age in years

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

serum creatinine

<= 38 µmol/L

0

 

38.01 to 102 µmol/L

1

 

102.01 to 282 µmol/L

2

 

> 282 µmol/L

4

serum albumin

<= 24 g/L

3

 

24.01 to 39.99 g/L

1

 

>= 40 g/L

0

serum total bilirubin

<= 100 µmol/L

0

 

100.1 to 575 µmol/L

1

 

> 575 µmol/L

3

age of the patient

0 to 65 years

0

 

> 65 years

3

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 13

 

Score

Risk Group

90-Day Mortality

0 to 2

A

6.2%

3 or 4

B

11.8%

5 or 6

C

24%

>= 7

D

35%

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC curve is 0.65.


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