Kong et al reported a simple model for predicting 90-day mortality for a patient prior to liver transplant surgery. This can help to identify a high-risk patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from West China Hospital of Sichuan University.
Patient selection: liver transplant
Parameters prior to transplant surgery:
(1) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(2) serum albumin in g/L
(3) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L
(4) age in years
Parameter
Finding
Points
serum creatinine
<= 38 µmol/L
0
38.01 to 102 µmol/L
1
102.01 to 282 µmol/L
2
> 282 µmol/L
4
serum albumin
<= 24 g/L
3
24.01 to 39.99 g/L
1
>= 40 g/L
0
serum total bilirubin
<= 100 µmol/L
0
100.1 to 575 µmol/L
1
> 575 µmol/L
3
age of the patient
0 to 65 years
0
> 65 years
3
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 13
Score
Risk Group
90-Day Mortality
0 to 2
A
6.2%
3 or 4
B
11.8%
5 or 6
C
24%
>= 7
D
35%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.65.
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