Ahn et al reported a model for predicting outcome associated with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Asan Medical Center and the University of Ulsan in Seoul.
Patient selection: chemotherapy-induced neutropenia
Criteria for febrile neutropenia:
(1) absolute neutrophil count < 500 per µL OR (< 1,000 per µL AND predicted fall to < 500 per µL in 2-3 days)
(2) body temperature > 38.0°C by tympanic thermometer
Outcomes: adverse event (MASCC risk index) including death, bacteremia
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) serum procalcitonin in ng/mL (method and reference range not stated)
(3) ECOG performance status
(4) oral mucositis grade
(5) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(6) respiratory rate in breaths per minute
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
age in years |
< 60 years |
0 |
|
>= 60 years |
2 |
procalcitonin |
< 0.5 ng/mL |
0 |
|
>= 0.5 ng/mL |
5 |
ECOG performance |
0 or 1 |
0 |
|
2 to 4 |
2 |
oral mucositis |
Grade 0 to 2 |
0 |
|
Grade 3 or 4 |
3 |
systolic blood pressure |
>= 90 mm Hg |
0 |
|
< 90 mm Hg |
3 |
respiratory rate |
< 23 breaths per minute |
0 |
|
>= 23 breaths per minute |
3 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 18
• The higher the score the greater the risk of an adverse event.
Score |
Risk Class |
Unfavorable Outcome |
0 to 2 |
low risk (I) |
6% |
3 to 8 |
intermediate risk (II) |
27% |
>= 9 |
high risk (III) |
68% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve for any adverse event ranged from 0.80 to 0.84.
• The area under the ROC curve for bacteremia ranged was around 0.86.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology