Yuan et al reported a prognostic model for a patient with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma relative to cardiovascular adverse events. The authors are from Fudan University, Naval Medical University, and Zhejiang University in Shanghai.
Patient selection: newly diagnosed multiple myeloma
Cardiovascular adverse events: heart failure, arrhythmia, hypertension, acute coronary syndrome, pulmonary hypertension, and pericardial effusion.
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) baseline office blood pressure >= 140/90 mm Hg
(3) left ventricular hypertrophy (> 125 g per sq m for male; > 120 g per sq m female)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
<= 61 years
0
> 61 years
2
blood pressure
normal
0
elevated
1
left ventricular hypertrophy
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 4
Total Score
Risk Category
Hazard Ratio OS
6-Year Survival Free of CVAE
0 or 1
low
1
90%
2
intermediate
3 to 5
60%
3 or 4
high
10-11
36%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve for overall survival is 0.73 in the training and 0.66 in the validation cohorts.
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