Description

Zhang et al reported a prognostic model for a patient with acute decompensated cirrhosis. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Nanchang University in China.


Patient selection: acute decompensated cirrhosis

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L

(3) INR

(4) WBC count in 10^9/L

(5) serum albumin in g/L

(6) serum ALT in IU/L

(7) serum urea in mmol/L

 

Parameter

Points

age in years

0.022 * (age)

serum total bilirubin

0.003 * (bilirubin)

INR

0.39 * (INR)

WBC count in 10^9/L

0.023 * (WBC)

serum albumin

-0.07 * (albumin)

serum ALT in IU/L

0.001 * (ALT)

serum urea in mmol/L

0.038 * (urea)

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• The cutoff was 0.68, separating low risk from high risk.

• The 6-month survival rate was 50% in the high-risk group vs 92% in the low-risk group.

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.81.

 


To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.