Zhang et al reported models for a patient with portal hypertension who are undergoing surgery. One model predicts bleeding-free survival following the operation. The authors are from Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiatong University in China
Patient selection: portal hypertension, splenectomy plus pericardial devascularization (traditional or simplified)
Outcome: 5-year bleeding free survival after surgery
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 20 to 80 years
(2) intraoperative blood loss in mL, from 0 to 4,000
(3) sex
(4) time to first flatus in days, from 2 to 10
points for age =
= (1.66667 * (years)) - 33.33333
points for blood loss =
= (0.011925 * (loss))
points for flatus =
= (7.5 * (days)) -15
Sex
Points
female
0
male
29.4
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 237.1
• The higher the score the lower the 5-year bleeding-free survival.
