Miyoshi et al reported prognostic models for a patient with Stage IV colorectal cancer after concurrent curative resection. One model predicts cancer-specific survival and a second relapse-free survival. The authors are from Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases, Osaka Rosai Hospital and Saiseikai Senri Hospital in Japan.
Patient selection: stage IV colorectal cancer, status post curative resection
Parameters:
(1) serum CEA in ng/mL, from 0 to 100
(2) tumor location
(3) tumor invasiveness (T status)
(4) lymph node metastasis
(5) synchronous metastasis
points for CEA =
= (0.00002727 * ((CEA)^3)) - (0.00642 * ((CEA)^2)) + (0.5694 * (CEA)) - 0.32518
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
tumor location
|
colon and rectosigmoid
|
0
|
|
|
rectum or anal canal
|
18.12
|
|
T status
|
T3
|
0
|
|
|
T4
|
26.34
|
|
lymph node metastasis
|
N0 or N1
|
0
|
|
|
N2a or N2b
|
18.75
|
|
synchronous metastasis
|
lung
|
0
|
|
|
liver
|
45.54
|
|
|
lung and liver
|
100
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 182.85
value of X =
= (-0.0003803 * ((score)^2)) - (0.01754 * (score)) + 2.946
probability of 5-year cancer specific survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.80 for derivation and 0.70 for validation cohorts.
