Prognostic Models of Miyoshi et al for a Patient with Stage IV Colorectal Cancer After Concurrent Curative Resection: Nomogram for Relapse-Free Survival (RFS)

Description

Miyoshi et al reported prognostic models for a patient with Stage IV colorectal cancer after concurrent curative resection. One model predicts cancer-specific survival and a second relapse-free survival. The authors are from Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases, Osaka Rosai Hospital and Saiseikai Senri Hospital in Japan.

Patient selection: stage IV colorectal cancer, status post curative resection

Parameters:

(1) serum CEA in ng/mL, from 0 to 100

(3) lymph node metastasis

(4) synchronous metastasis

CEA	Points
0 to 50	(-0.004401 * ((CEA)^2)) + (0.4971 * (CEA)) - 0.01786
50 to 100	(0.08572 * (CEA)) + 9.643

Parameter	Finding	Points
lymph node metastasis	N0 or N1	0
	N2a or N2b	21.6
synchronous metastasis	lung	0
	liver	56.6
	lung and liver	100

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 139.8

value of X =

= (-0.0001521 * ((score)^2)) - (0.02097 * (score)) + 0.8789

probability of 5-year relapse-free survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.63 for derivation and 0.6 for validation cohorts.

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