Gebremariam et al reported scores for predicting early neonatal mortality in Ethiopia. These can help to identify a neonate who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Debre Tabor University in Ethiopia.
Patient selection: sick neonate in Ethiopia
Parameters:
(1) maternal nutritional status
(2) absolute neutrophil count (ANC) on follow-up
(3) birth asphyxia at 5 minutes
(4) exclusive breast feeding
(5) birth weight
Parameter
Finding
Points
Beta_Coefficients
maternal nutritional status
nourished
0
0
malnourished
1
0.97
ANC
>= 4 * 10^9/L
0
0
< 4 * 10^9/L
1
1.24
birth asphyxia
no
0
0
yes
1
1.14
exclusive breast feeding
yes
0
0
no
4
2.38
birth weight
normal
0
0
low
2
1.79
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
value of X =
= SUM(all of the beta-coefficients) - 4.27
probability of early mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score:9
• A score >= 4 is associated with high risk of early neonatal mortality.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.89.
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