Lu et al reported a prognostic score for a patient with gastric cancer following gastrectomy. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive or novel therapy. The authors are from Fudan University in Shanghai, China.
Patient selection: gastric cancer following gastrectomy, without distant metastases
Parameters:
(1) year
(2) sex
(3) TNM stage
(4) marital status
(5) prognostic scoreof Smith et al for DCIS, based on age, grade and tumor size, from 0 to 6
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
year |
1988-1992 |
9 |
|
1993-1997 |
6.1 |
|
1998-2002 |
5.7 |
|
2003-2007 |
3.2 |
|
2008-2012 |
0 |
sex |
female |
0 |
|
male |
6.2 |
TNM stage |
IA |
0 |
|
IB |
22 |
|
IIA |
37.5 |
|
IIB |
55.8 |
|
IIIA |
67.3 |
|
IIIB |
83.6 |
|
IIIC |
100 |
marital status |
married |
0 |
|
unmarried |
6.5 |
score |
0 or 1 |
0 |
|
2 |
13.4 |
|
3 |
17.1 |
|
4 |
22.1 |
|
5 |
27 |
|
6 |
32.9 |
Since any current patient is after 2012, this term will be dispensed with.
total score =
= SUM(points for the remaining parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 145.6
value of X =
= (-0.00011017 * ((score)^2)) - (0.015945 * (score)) + 2.3545
probability of 5-year survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.72.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology