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Prognostic Score of Zou et al for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)

Purpose: To determine the prognosis for a patient with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) using the score of Zou et al.

Description

Zou et al identified risk factors associated with prognosis in patients with the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). This can help identify those patients with a worse prognosis who may require more aggressive management and monitoring. The authors are from the Academy of Military Medical Sciences in Beijing, China.


Parameters identified on multivariate analysis:

(1) degree of hypoxemia

(2) platelet count as the multiple of 10^9 per L

 

Measure of Hypoxemia

Points

no hypoxemia

0

PaO2 >= 70 mm Hg OR oxygen saturation >= 93%

1

PaO2 >= 60 and < 70 mm Hg, OR oxygen saturation >= 90% and < 93%

2

PaO2 < 60 mm Hg, OR oxygen saturation <  90%

3

 

where:

• PaO2 and oxygen saturation appear to be with oxygen inhalation of 3-5 L/min (see criteria for severe disease in Table 1).

 

S =

= (2.490 * (points for hypoxemia)) - (0.050 * (platelet count multiple))

 

probability =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * S))

 

Performance:

• Sensitivity 91.%, specificity 98.3%

• Diagnostic accuracy 96.4%


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10