Gentile et al reported a score for predicting progression-free survival for a patient with early stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). This can help to identify a patient who may or may not require more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in Italy and from the Mayo Clinic.
Patient selection: early stage (0, I or II)
Outcome: progression-free survival
Parameters:
(1) Rai stage
(2) absolute lymphocyte count in 10^9/L
(3) serum beta-2 microglobulin
(4) IGHV mutation status
Parameter
Finding
Points
Rai stage
0
0
I or II
1
absolute lymphocyte count
< 10 * 10^9/L
0
>= 10^9/L
2
serum beta-2 microglobulin
normal
0
elevated
2
IGHV mutation status
mutated
0
unmutated
2
total score =
= points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 7
• The higher the score the greater the risk of disease progression.
Total Score
Risk Category
5-Year Progression Free Survival
0 to 2
low
87%
3 to 5
intermediate
55-63%
6 or 7
high
23-30%
from Figurer 1 for training and validation sets.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.75.
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