Outcomes:
(1) organ failure (respiratory, cardiac, renal) or sepsis
(2) death
Parameters:
(1) white blood cell (WBC) count
(2) serum glucose
(3) Ranson score (see above)
Admission parameters associated with one or more organ failures:
(1) serum glucose >= 160 mg/dL and a WBC count >= 17,000 per µL
(2) Ranson score >= 3
Admission parameters associated with low risk of death:
(1) WBC count < 17,000 per µL
(2) admission Ranson = 0
Performance:
• The combination of elevated WBC count and serum glucose had a low sensitivity (31%) but high specificity (97%) for organ failure. The positive predictive value was 80% and negative predictive value 81%.
• The elevated Ranson score had a low sensitivity (19%) but high specificity (100%) for organ failure. The positive predictive value was 100% and negative predictive value 79%.
• The negative predictive value for death was 99% for WBC count and 100% for Ranson score. Both showed low positive predictive values.
Limitations:
• The cutoffs for the Ranson score are based on laboratory values which can vary between methods and laboratories.
