Risk Factors of Maurer et al for Worsening of Skin Fibrosis in a Patient with Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis (dcSSc)

Description

Maurer et al identified risk factors for worsening of skin fibrosis in a patient with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). While intended for selecting patients for a clinical trial it can also be used in practice. The authors are collaborators at EUSTAR centers.

Patient selection: diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis

Outcome: worsening skin fibrosis within 1 year

Parameters:

(1) duration of dcSSc

(2) baseline modified Rodnan Skin Score (mRSS, maximum 51)

(3) joint synovitis

Parameter	Finding	Points
duration of dcSSc	<= 15 months	1
	> 15 minutes	0
baseline mRSS	<= 22	1
	>=23	0
joint synovitis	absent	0
	present	1

number of risk factors =

= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum number of risk factors: 0

• maximum number of risk factors: 3

• The risk of skin fibrosis worsening increases with the number of risk factors present.

Performance:

• The overall performance appears to have a prediction success of around 30% (see Table 5).

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Risk Factors of Maurer et al for Worsening of Skin Fibrosis in a Patient with Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis (dcSSc)

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