Xiaofan et al reported a model for predicting progression of idiopathic membranous nephropathy (IMN). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Shanghai Ruijin Hospital and Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
Patient selection: idiopathic membranous nephropathy, age >= 15 years
Primary outcome: renal function deterioration, end-stage renal disease or death
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) eGFR in mL per kg per 1.73 square meter (CKD-EPI, Levey, 2009)
(3) proteinuria in grams per 24 hours
Parameter
Points
age
0.04 * (age)
eGFR
- 0.03 * (eGFR)
proteinuria
0.09 * (proteinuria)
risk score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• Each unit increase in the risk score is associated with a 2.57-fold increase in risk for primary outcome.
• A score >= -0.29 is associated with a high risk (hazard ratio 5.97) for the primary outcome.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.83.
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