Risk Factors for Mortality in Severe Chronic COPD

 

Patient selection: >= 60 years of age with severe COPD (PaO2 < 57 mm Hg at rest OR at the end of the a 6 minute walking test)

 

Parameters:

(1) drawing ability (copy of drawing with landmarks, from the Mental Deterioration Battery, see Carlesimo et al)

(2) 6 minute walking distance

(3) PaO2 at rest

(4) FEV1 as percent of predicted

 

Parameter	Finding	Points
copy of drawing	normal	0
	abnormal	1
6 minute walk distance	>= 300 meters	0
	< 300 meters	1
PaO2 at rest	>= 57 mm Hg	0
	< 57 mm Hg	1
FEV1 as percent of predicted	>= 40%	0
	< 40%	1

 

where:

• The hazard ratios range from 2.2 to 3.5.

 

number of mortality risk factors =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum number of risk factors: 0

• maximum number of risk factors: 4

• The risk of death increases with the number of risk factors present.