Spinar et al developed two models for evaluating a patient with congestive heart failure. One was a statistical model with 3 more variables than the AHEAD score. The authors are from multiple hospitals in the Czech Republic.
Patient selection: congestive heart failure
Outcome: short and long-term mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) atrial fibrillation
(3) diabetes mellitus
(4) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(5) anemia (hemoglobin in g/L by gender)
(6) COPD
(7) chronic ischemic heart disease
(8) serum sodium in mmol/L
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
<= 70 years
0
> 70 years
1
atrial fibrillation
absent
0
present
1
diabetes mellitus
absent
0
present
1
serum creatinine
<= 130 µmol/L
0
> 130 µmol/L
1
hemoglobin
male and < 130 g/L
1
male and >= 130 g/L
0
female and < 120 g/L
1
female and >= 120 g/L
0
COPD
absent
0
present
1
chronic ischemic heart disease
absent
0
present
1
serum sodium
< 135 mmol/L
1
>= 135 mmol/L
0
total score =
= SUM(point for all 8 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 8
• The higher the score the worse the overall survival.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.72 for 5 years and 0.79 for 7.5 years.
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