Tuomilehto et al reported a model for predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes based on data from the STOP-NIDDM study. The authors are from multiple institutions in Finland, Germany and Canada.
Patient selection: adult with impaired glucose tolerance, 40 to 70 years of age, with BMI from 25 to 40 kg per square meter, fasting plasma glucose between 5.6 and 7.7 mmol/L, and 2 hour plasma glucose after 75 g oral glucose of 7.8 to 11.1 mmol/L
Parameters:
(1) therapy with acarbose
(2) sex
(3) serum triglyceride concentration in mmol/L
(4) waist circumference in cm
(5) fasting plasma glucose in mmol/L
(6) height in cm
(7) baseline history of cardiovascular disease
(8) diagnosed with hypertension
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
acarbose therapy
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
-0.318
|
|
sex
|
male
|
0
|
|
|
female
|
-0.168
|
|
serum triglycerides
|
|
0.156 * (TG)
|
|
waist circumference
|
|
0.017 * (waist)
|
|
fasting glucose
|
|
0.413 * (FG)
|
|
height
|
|
-0.024 * (height)
|
|
cardiovascular disease
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.628
|
|
hypertension
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.287
|
score =
=SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 0.376
probability of type 2 diabetes in 2.5 years =
= 1 - 0.748^(EXP(score))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.64 in the STOP-NIDDM population and 0.84 in the FINRISK population.
