Singh et al reported Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) for predicting discharge destination following surgery. The authors are from the University of Colorado in Denver.
Patient selection: surgical patient
Parameters:
(1) CPT event rate
(2) age in years
(3) inpatient vs outpatient surgery
(4) ASA status
(5) primary surgeon specialty vs general surgery
(6) functional health status before operation
(7) emergency operation
(8) work relative value unit (RVU; number usually between 5 and 30)
Parameter
Finiding
Odds Ratio
LN(OR)
CPT event rate
1.041
0.04018 * (rate)
age
1.050
0.04879 * (years)
status
outpatient
1
0
inpatient
7.386
1.9995
ASA
ASA 1
1
0
ASA 2
1.585
1.585
ASA 3
3.262
3.262
ASA 4 or 5
6.671
6.671
surgical specialty
general
1
0
gynecology
0.587
-0.5327
neurosurgery
2.209
0.7925
orthopedic
2.085
0.73477
otolaryngology
0.850
-0.1625
plastic
1.534
0.4278
thoracic
0.838
-0.1767
urologic
0.598
-0.5146
vascular
0.903
-0.102
functional status
independent
1
0
partially dependent
2.814
1.0346
fully dependent
2.471
0.9046
emergency
no
0
1
yes
1.56
0.44468
work RVU
1.004
0.00399 * (RVU)
value of X =
= SUM(beta-coefficients) - 4.7992
probability of discharge to place other than home =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.914.
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