Keaskin et al reported a score for predicting pancreatitis-related hospital admission for a patient newly diagnosed with chronic pancreatitis. The authors are from Trinity College, Tallaght University, and University Hospital of Tarragona Joan XXIII.
Patient selection: newly diagnosed chronic pancreatitis
Outcome: pancreatitis-related hospital admission
Parameters:
(1) gender
(2) etiology of chronic pancreatitis
(3) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(4) pain medication (analgesic ladder)
Parameter
Finding
Beta-Coefficients
gender
female
0
male
0.38
etiology
biliary
0.56
alcoholic
0.39
other
0
body mass index
underweight (< 18.5)
0.77
normal (18.5 to 24.9)
0
overweight (25 to 29.9)
0.88
obese (>= 30)
0.45
pain medication
no regular analgesia
0
paracetamol/NSAIDS
1.32
weak opioid
0.82
strong opioid
1.53
value of X =
= SUM(beta-coefficients for all of the parameters) - 1.97
probability of hospital admission =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.72.
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