Description

Pieper et al updated the GRACE model for predicting in-hospital mortality for a patient who presents with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). This can help identify patients who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) Investigators.


Patient selection: ACS with or without ST-segment elevation

 

Parameters:

(1) Killip class (on presentation)

(2) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg (on presentation)

(3) heart rate in beats per minute (on presentation)

(4) age in years

(5) serum creatinine in mg/dL (on presentation)

(6) cardiac arrest at admission

(7) ST-segment deviation

(8) serum cardiac enzyme levels (on presentation)

(9) STEMI

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

Killip class

I

0

 

II

17

 

III

34

 

IV

51

systolic blood pressure

< 70 mm Hg

66

 

70 - 89

53

 

90 - 109

40

 

110 - 129

27

 

>= 130

19

heart rate

< 70 beats per minute

10

 

70 - 89

15

 

90 - 109

26

 

110 - 129

32

 

130 - 149

24

 

150 - 169

16

 

170-199

8

 

>= 200

0

age in years

< 30 years of age

0

 

30 - 49

10

 

50 - 69

29

 

70 - 79

56

 

80 - 89

73

 

>= 90

91

serum creatinine

< 0.40

3

 

0.40 - 0.90

9

 

1.00 - 1.90

32

 

>= 2.00

51

cardiac arrest

no

0

 

yes

38

ST-segment deviation

no

0

 

yes

18

serum cardiac enzymes

not elevated

0

 

elevated

14

STEMI

absent

0

 

present

14

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 9 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 1

• maximum score: 375

• The higher the score the greater the probability of in-hospital mortality.

 

X =

= (0.03304 * (score)) - 7.953

 

Total Score

Probability of In-Hospital Mortality

< 100

< 1%

100 - 375

1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 


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