Werneck et al used a classification tree and logistic regression to predict mortality in children with meningococcal disease in Brazil.
Patients:
(1) age < 16 years
(2) admitted to a hospital in Rio de Janeiro from 1989-1990
(3) selected based on isolation of N. meningitidis, identification of gram negative diplococci from CSF, presence of meningococcal antigen in CSF, and/or characteristic clinical picture
Patients with Shock (50% mortality rate)
|
Parameter 1 |
Finding |
Parameter 2 |
Finding |
Percent Mortality |
|
neck stiffness |
yes |
|
|
30% |
|
|
no |
age in years |
< 2.5 |
96% |
|
|
|
|
>= 2.5 |
65% |
Patients without Shock (4% mortality rate)
|
Parameter 1 |
Finding |
Parameter 2 |
Finding |
Percent Mortality |
|
duration of illness |
< 12 hours |
|
|
16% |
|
|
>= 12 hours |
focal neurologic findings |
yes |
20% |
|
|
|
|
no |
2% |
Performance of classification tree:
• sensitivity 86% with specificity of 82%
• positive predictive value 37% and negative predictive value 98%
Specialty: Infectious Diseases, Pulmonology, Neurology
ICD-10: ,
